WHY THE FIASCO IN BASILAN

Author in Basilan, 2011

How could good men with good intentions go so horribly wrong? You’ve seen my summary of what actually went wrong. This is my attempt to figure out WHY it did. Keep in mind that just because the October 18 operation in Basilan was inept (and led to the deaths of 19 soldiers in Al-Barka) doesn’t mean the individual soldiers are inept.

Two officers have been relieved: Lt. Col. Leo Pena, 4th Special Forces Battalion Commander, and Col. Alexander Macario, head of the Special Operations Team-Basilan (SOTF-B). Speaking with high-ranking officers familiar with the case, one more officer, they say, should have been questioned – if not relieved – as well: Col. Alminkadra Undug, Army Special Forces Regiment Commander based in Zamboanga. He is Pena’s immediate superior in the Special Forces chain of command and the man whom sources say gave Pena the target intelligence package for the operation. Col. Undug handled MIG9 (the Military Intelligence Group) in Zamboanga and was implicated in the Hello, Garci scandal.

Read more

Posted in Military, Terrorism | 2 Comments

FIASCO IN BASILAN

Philippine President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino faced a dilemma last week after the deaths of 19 soldiers in Al-Barka, Basilan. Despite the public outcry and mourning, he resisted numerous calls to declare war against the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and break a ceasefire that’s been in place since 2008. Instead, he decided to hold the military accountable. He also chose not to tell the public about the numerous mistakes that led to the tragic deaths.

Results of a classified military investigation paint a picture of incompetence that seems hard to believe. There are conflicting statements from military officers regarding the purpose of the mission: a high-ranking officer said the troops were supposed to serve a warrant of arrest against the Abu Sayyaf’s Long Malat Solaiman. Army spokesmen, however, publicly stated their goal was to serve a warrant of arrest against the MILF’s Commander Dan Laksaw Asnawi, who was involved in the beheadings of soldiers in 2007. However, these statements do not explain why soldiers are doing a police function.

According to a classified report, details of which were confirmed by military officers familiar with the investigation, the battle between the military and the Abu Sayyaf began less than 2 km. away from a designated safe zone called the Area of Temporary Stay (ATS) of the MILF’s 114th Base Command. The battle lasted 10 hours and moved 4.3 km away from the ATS, disproving the MILF’s claims that soldiers violated the ceasefire rules.

Read more here.

(To share or comment on this story, visit or ‘like’ www.facebook.com/Move.PH. Also follow @MovePH on Twitter.)

Posted in Terrorism | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

10 Years After 9/11: Lessons from the Philippines

The catastrophic attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 ripped off a veneer and exposed what was growing beneath the surface: al Qaeda’s successful efforts to tap Muslim grievances around the world and infect disparate, home-grown groups with its global jihad. Al Qaeda has helped groups like Jemaah Islamiyah in Southeast Asia target the “Near Enemy” – their governments, and the “Far Enemy” – the United States.

Ten years after the event, it appears that 9/11 was the peak of al Qaeda’s strength, when it reached from its caves in Afghanistan to destroy symbols of modernity, forcing governments around the world to change outdated paradigms of Cold War defense structures. Bin Laden’s victory was short-lived: 9/11 was a strategic error for his forces because now they were exposed and vulnerable. In the next decade, they would never be that strong again.

Since 9/11, there has been no other al Qaeda attack on US soil or any other al Qaeda attack of a similar magnitude anywhere. Osama bin Laden is dead, and most of al-Qaeda’s ‘legacy leaders’ have been killed and replaced. More than 40 plots have been foiled in the last decade, according to the Heritage Foundation. Some officials have declared all of this a “victory,” but lessons from the Philippines show that the next defeat can come from the jaws of “victory.”

Read more

Posted in Terrorism | Tagged | 4 Comments

“The Power in Your Hands”

Keynote speech delivered during the Tatt Awards night on Aug. 26, 2011, at the Peninsula Hotel in Manila, Philippines. I was part of a panel of judges called the Tatt Council, which selected the winners. This was first posted on Move.PH. Visit and like the Facebook page to see the evolution of this social media experiment.

Peninsula Hotel, Manila, Philippines, Aug. 26, 2011

Thank you for inviting me to speak to you tonight about the big ideas that have brought us all together. The Internet and new media technology is changing the way we think, changing and playing with the plasticity of our brains, actually rewiring our synapses – and, consequently, changing the way we act. It’s changing power structures around the world – I’ll give you both positive and negative examples. And finally, as many of you here already know, it is giving you power the generation before us never had. We live through it every day and take it for granted, but make no mistake. The changes are cataclysmic.

I’ll begin with you. The first change is physiological. How many of you have Facebook accounts, Twitter? How much time do you spend on social media? Are you addicted? Chances are to some degree, you are. Your dopamine levels, the chemical that causes addiction, increases when you’re using twitter or facebook. It’s proven in FMRI imaging studies. Remember, our emotions are really just chemical reactions and social media is tweaking your emotions by changing the chemical levels in your brain. Because your emotions are heightened, your expectations and the way you behave shifts. I first studied this because I wanted to know how people consumed news. Academics complain about tabloid journalism, but the reality is that it’s now become the norm globally. That’s largely because that’s the way people in general want to get their news.

Why? Because the technology we use has kept us on a perpetual emotional high. This is not just social media but all the interruptions in the modern day world – flooding our brains with dopamine – helping condition us to like “sensationalism” over “objectivity.”

Anyway, the way you think is different. The reason I’m writing a book now is because I wanted to find out how the Internet has affected my brain. And BOY, it has. As a reporter, you tend to live on adrenalin, but this constant dopamine fix of social media has a downside. We are creating a generation that can’t focus, is bad at multi-tasking and lacks concentration. The upside is we’re more engaged. We’re more social. We can decide – with minimal costs – to act TOGETHER. A recent study came out that showed that students on Facebook don’t do as well in school but they’re more developed socially.

So here you are – being changed by the media you consume. While one person can spark or tip towards meaningful change, one person can’t do much on his or her own. You need to harness a group. And for much of human history, scientists realized that the most number of people we could hold together socially or for any meaningful endeavor is 150. It’s called Dunbar’s number. Not coincidentally, that’s the average number of friends people have on Facebook. It requires effort and money to get beyond that number.

For most of human history, there only existed two ways we can harness human capabilities. You either create a company or a bureaucracy – which requires a lot of capital, money to hire, create a hierarchy and communicate internally so you can get the group to achieve a shared purpose. It’s the principle behind companies and governments.

The second way is to create markets, which also requires institutions to set rules, maintain and regulate. That also costs money.

The third way happened less than a decade ago. We now have the power to harness networks – at almost no cost. Let me give you two concrete examples of this: Wikipedia and A MILLION VOICES AGAINST FARC in Colombia.

The ability to harness networks and move people to action is called crowd-sourcing, and a development that will change businesses and institutions globally. James Surowieki wrote a book called THE WISDOM OF CROWDS where he wrote that “large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant – better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions.” He listed the four criteria you needed to make that happen: diversity of opinion, independence, decentralization, aggregation.

This is the idea behind the citizen journalism program I led at ABS-CBN. Now every news organization in the Philippines has one, but when we started in 2005, it was a novel idea since most journalists were wary of mixing with non-professionals. Well, that’s another idea that’s been tossed out the window.

Professional journalists have to redefine their roles today because now everyone is a journalist. Everyone in this room has the power to publish – something only large organizations with money could afford to do in the generation before us.

Let me end with some big examples of the power of crowd-sourcing and social media, new ways of connecting networks of people. Let’s go to the phenomenon of the Arab spring, the huge protests in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Libya. It set off a debate about Facebook and Twitter revolutions – with people saying yes it is, no it isn’t. Regardless of what we call it, the Internet – and social media in particular – helped ignite long-standing grievances, broke walls of fear, spread courage and fast-tracked what may have taken months and years without instant communications – all this leading to the downfall of dictators.

The medium that carries the message shapes and defines the message itself. Social media’s instantaneous nature pushed the speed at which these revolutions unraveled and spread discontent – and courage – virally across the region. The first messages created ripple effects, amplified and pushed further by countless, nameless people spreading not just the message itself but their emotions – what psychologists call emotional contagion. It’s extremely powerful, and it created protest movements that were difficult for authoritarian governments to control. Why? Because they were modeled on the networks of the web – loose, non-hierarchical, leaderless. You don’t know whom to arrest, no political parties to tear apart, no underground revolt to dismantle. This is the people, and any government that fights its people will ultimately fail.

On the flip side, it can also make it easier to organize looting and riots as we saw recently in London. British officials actually talked about controlling or shutting down social media.

Every powerful tool can be used positively and negatively. I think the earlier we focus on the positives, the sooner we can think of innovative applications. So the internet can bring down governments, empower its people, help spread democracy. What other things can it do? A lot more. It can help in governance. It can help change behavior and infuse new meaning into political processes. For countries like the Philippines, there’s a great opportunity for journalists and the people to come together and help identify needs and push for solutions. Many of you are doing this now in your areas of influence, but we are envisioning something that puts all our energies together. A group of friends and I are now working on a project that aims to evolve journalism and use new technology to harness citizens for nation-building. We are creating a pilot, scalable model that can be used in countries like ours with weak institutions and weak governance. I want to see change in my lifetime, and technology now gives us the ability to do it ourselves.

If you get a chance tonight, you can see a little of this conversation on Facebook. Visit Move.PH on Facebook and tell us what you think. Be part of the experiment and watch it evolve.

Let me end the way I began. It’s a time of cataclysmic change. The sooner we recognize that and embrace it, the sooner we can begin to think of new applications, new ways of doing things, new systems for harnessing collective efforts … the sooner we step into the future.

Thank you, Tatt Awards, for giving me the opportunity to see the work of so many talented Filipinos who have embraced this brave new digital world. I learned a lot by being part of this process. Remember, we should be at the forefront of this revolution because we are officially the social media capital of the world according to ComScore.

Every day, I wake up and try to assess how the world has changed since I fell asleep. Of course, the first thing I do is look at Twitter and see what others around the world have sent me. Social media connects us globally now. How many of you guys saw Inception? That’s my metaphor for our world today. The Internet is the second level of reality that is quickly changing reality. What we do in the virtual world is changing the real world.

Congratulations to the winners tonight! You all are amazing and already know first-hand the power you wield to influence people. Now we just have to make sure we use it wisely. May the Force be with you!

Posted in Internet, Journalism, Leadership, Living Life | Tagged , , | 8 Comments

“From bin Laden to Facebook” in Garmisch, Germany

Outside the lecture hall at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies

Inside hall while staff prepares for lecture

I walked into the room and looked around. It was large. Each desk had a headset. I walked to the front where the podium was. It was flanked by two huge monitors on either side. It was like a mini United Nations.

I tested the two microphones. The officer who was briefing me pushed a button and the podium surface descended. The mics were on so everything we said was amplified in the room. It was a good sound system. No echo. I looked above me, and there were three translator booths.

The officer said, “we’re loading the slides and video now. If someone asks a question in a different language, pick up this headset and it will be translated for you.”

He showed me how to work the buttons on the side of the podium for the slide presentation. He took out a slim pen-pointer and said, “if you need a laser, you have to push this hard then point.”

I stood at the podium and realized I was too short. I asked, “would you have anything I can stand on so that even for a short while, I’ll be the tallest person in the room?”

He laughed. Leigh Ann Truly (I really love her name: in Tagalog, Ms Truly is Binibining Tapat!) said, “how about this?” and pointed to the little box that led to the stage. The officer picked it up and brought it. I stood on it. Perfect.

This was my own private FGD (focus group discussion) – a way for me to test and get feedback on some of the ideas I’m including in my new book. The audience, I was told, are top and mid-level officers and officials who focus on counterterrorism.

The title of my presentation is the title of my book: FROM BIN LADEN TO FACEBOOK. It is my two worlds coming together – terrorism studies and media – more specifically, social networks and how information and ideas spread through a population to win converts.

I study terrorism because I am fascinated by what motivates people to become terrorists. Why is their cause worth killing innocent civilians? Why would they want to kill themselves?

In the past, officials tried to answer these questions by looking at individual people. Analysts say this man was tortured, abused – but if we look broader, often times, we find that terrorists are ordinary people. They could be anyone.

I went from individual psychology to studies of group dynamics – groupthink – and to networks. I looked at the application of these theories to the networks created by Jemaah Islamiyah and Al-Qaeda. I even applied lessons I learned from running the news organization of ABS-CBN. I focused on the three waves of evolution of the same terror network in Southeast Asia.

They accepted the thesis, were excited and receptive to the ideas in the presentation. An officer from Georgia wanted to focus more specifically on how the Asch experiments can explain radicalism, but another officer from the United States explained that it was only a small part of the experiments focusing on groupthink.

The questions they asked there and in the following seminars were thought-provoking, among them: What is the outlook for mass media in the future? How can we use this from a CT perspective? What do you do when Twitter misinforms and misleads? What is the role of journalists in conflict situations today? How would you rate how governments are using the new technology?

I then asked questions: How many of you are on Facebook? Twitter? How do you use networks in counterterrorism strategies in your countries? What role does media play in your country? How do you think it will change? How has your work changed in the past decade?

After intense discussions, we stepped outside the hall to an amazing view. The Marshall Center is in Garmisch, Germany at the base of its highest point at Zugspitze.

From the top of Zugspitze

It was an amazing week. Now time to write.

View from my Balcony

Posted in Internet, Journalism, Leadership, Living Life, Terrorism | Tagged , , | 9 Comments