If you’d like to know more about the impact of Osama bin laden’s death on the terrorist networks in Southeast Asia, here are a few interviews I did the past two weeks:
Within an hour of Barack Obama’s announcement, ANC and Pinky Webb put me on the spot. This was the first time I talked about the “jihadi virus.”
Gmanews.tv head Howie Severino sent me thoughtful, fun (well, fun for me!) questions to answer. He gave me a chance to talk about how important Jemaah Islamiyah was to Al-Qaeda, much of which was in my first book, but recently verified by the Wikileaks documents released a few weeks back – Pinay author tracks bin laden influence in Southeast Asia.
Jakarta Globe in Indonesia ran an updated version of the jihadi virus piece which was first published by CNN.
Here in Singapore, I watched the government and its ruling party, the PAP (People’s Action Party) hold elections last Saturday. It was the most nervous I’d ever seen the PAP in my 25 years reporting in the region, and the first time its leader, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, apologized for any possible shortcomings of the government.
It’s ironic because Singapore’s government runs like clockwork. They do ten year plans which are implemented and fine-tuned by the incoming government (cutting down possibilities of patronage and corruption). More than 80% of Singaporeans live in government-subsidized housing, the highest in the world. It has virtually no homeless and ranks among the least corrupt nations in the world.
A small nation (when I first started reporting, it had a little more than 2.3 million people – now its population is 5.1 million), it plans ahead and often is the first to identify problems. For example, most people think the United States spearheaded an environmental program. Not true. The first was Singapore. It makes sense. What started out as a 581 sq km island (smaller than the Philippines’ Siquijor) has reclaimed land from the sea, adding nearly 200 sq km over the years. Since it’s so small, the leaders decided to save 23% of its land for forests and natural preserves. They wanted it clean and green – importing more than 800 varieties of palms and thousands of other plant species to this island-state. If they didn’t plan, chances are this would have become a concrete jungle, swamped by racial tension and (as its history has shown) racial violence. That is not Singapore today, and it is largely because of the vision of Lee Kuan Yew and the PAP.
No matter how well you’ve done, it’s harder to hold on to power than it is to challenge it. We inevitably always favor the underdog, and those in power get no extra points. Power exercised responsibly leads to boring! Leadership and the responsibility that comes with it makes an incumbent seem more cautious and less transparent, while the challenger can let the arrows zing.
These elections were also Singapore’s freest because of the internet and social media. Of course, the PAP still won, but at 60.6%, it’s the lowest margin since independence.
Why should it matter to non-Singaporeans? Because it teaches us about human nature and the price of success. The best example is Singapore’s Foreign Minister George Yeo. A Harvard MBA, he was a young man who symbolized change and rejuvenation when I first met him in the late 80′s/early 90′s. We developed a near adversarial relationship during the caning of 18 year old American Michael Fay in the early 90′s when he was the Minister of Information, Communication and Arts. I watched him move through different portfolios – including Health and Trade & Industry. The last interview I did with him was in his post today as Foreign Affairs.
His district, Aljunied, became a national battleground, and his team lost to the opposition Workers’ Party. Yesterday, he gave this speech, saying he would “ensure a smooth handover” and leave politics. It is not as emotional as his concession speech Sunday, but he shows the most gracious meaning of the word “politician.”
Human beings are not logical. Studies show that as much as 80% of how we make our choices is determined by our emotions. The emotion in Singapore today – like in much of the rest of the world – embraces change. It’s still more circumspect, more pragmatic, but the lessons from last week’s elections show the days of a patrician, Father Knows Best leadership is over.
It is the age of social media and Facebook – a cacophony of voices and opinions that may not know much – but which impact and now shape the world.
Osama bin Laden’s death is a moral victory, but it may turn out to be nothing more than that.
Over the past decade, he has been isolated and the capabilities of al Qaeda degraded, but it’s evolved into a social movement that continues to attract new groups and new recruits.
Studies of social networks of al Qaeda and its Southeast Asian arm, Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), show they continue to spread violent jihadi ideology like a virus.
How does it spread?
Aside from the crucible of the Afghan training camps in the late 1980s, the constant propaganda pumped out by al Qaeda’s media arm and the real and perceived injustice against Muslims used by radicals to recruit moderates, there are other, more imperceptible influences.
Social network theory offers the Three Degrees of Influence Rule defined in numerous academic studies. Everything we say or do ripples through our social network, creating an impact on our friends (one degree), our friends’ friends (two degrees), and even our friends’ friends’ friends (three degrees).
For example, if you’re feeling lonely, there’s a 54% chance your friend will feel lonely; a 25% chance your friend’s friend will feel lonely; and a 15% chance your friend’s friend’s friend will feel lonely. Emotions like happiness and hope, as well as smoking and even obesity can be traced and spread through social networks.
If these can spread through social networks, why not the volatile mix that leads to terrorism — anger, fear, hatred, religious fervor? Mapping the social networks of al Qaeda and JI show it does
Indonesian JI leader Umar Patek and his Filipina wife, 29 year old Rumaesha, were captured by Pakistani officials in Abbottabad, the same town where Osama bin Laden was killed this week.
Patek was arrested on January 25, 2011 based on a tip by the CIA. Indonesia’s Defense Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro said, “The information that we have with Umar Patek (and about) why he was in Pakistan … is (he was) trying to meet with Osama bin Laden.”
Intelligence sources from 3 different nations say Patek may have been hoping to meet with bin Laden to discuss a planned terror strike to mark the 10th anniversary of 9/11. A US source said it didn’t seem like the meeting happened.
Indonesian officials say Jemaah Islamiyah is behind a series of attacks and foiled plots that began mid-March: a series of book bombs sent to moderate Muslims; a suicide bomber who blew himself up inside a police mosque; and a 150-kg bomb attached to a gas pipe next to a church that was set to go off Easter weekend. Authorities were able to prevent the explosion when they began arresting terrorists they believed responsible for the book bombs.
Could JI have more plots in motion?
Umar Patek and his brother-in-law, Dulmatin, fled the Bali dragnet and moved to the Philippines in 2003. Dulmatin was killed in Indonesia in 2010 after setting up a training camp in Aceh with JI’s former emir, Abu Bakar Ba’asyir.
UPDATE:
US source and a third source from another nation deny Patek gave any information that led to bin Laden. Sources in Pakistan, however, do not deny that possibility.
Two days after the release of American Milton Taylor, we can establish some facts:
1. He was kidnapped in January in Cagayan de Oro City.
2. He was released on Wednesday, April 13.
3. At least one Lanao del Sur official paid P100,000 for his release, according to Cagayan de Oro City Mayor Vicente Emano.
4. At least one official report links his kidnappers to the MILF’s 102nd Base Command.
According to an official report, Milton Taylor checked into Lamar Inn in Cagayan de Oro City as “Sam Taylor” in December 2010. He disappeared on January 11, 2011. Four days later, hotel staff did an inventory of his belongings in room 604. On January 19, the hotel’s credit department reported him to the police for not paying bills amounting to about P30,000.
Four days later on January 22, sources tell me a woman contacted the US embassy to tell officials that Taylor was missing. Col. Leo Ferrer of the Army’s 601st Infantry Brigade said the US embassy reported that to the Philippines in January as well. At least one official report called Taylor “a known treasure hunter” and one concluded “that said foreign national was evading from his accountability of the said hotel.”
Ransom Demands
Military and police intelligence sources tell me that on February 11, Taylor allegedly called a friend and demanded Php 10 million in ransom (about USD 230,000) for his kidnappers. This was confirmed by Senior Superintendent Antonio Montalba, deputy police director of the Cagayan de Oro Police, to the Gold Star Daily.
Later on February 11, intelligence sources say his cell phone was used by his kidnappers, who demanded ransom and threatened to kill him if they didn’t get the money.
A little more than a week later, authorities received two videos of Taylor reading a ransom demand. The one I posted yesterday (a close-up) started with the date – January 29. This video, a long-shot, has no date.
The initial demand for Php 10 million was gradually reduced to Php 300,000 before settling at Php 100,000, says Mayor Emano, “for board and lodging.” He said the US embassy refused to pay any money because of its government’s no-ransom policy.
On Wednesday, April 13, Philippine government officials as well as officers of the police and military confirmed Taylor had been kidnapped.
After his release, Taylor told reporters two people approached him at a food stall in Divisoria, Cagayan de Oro City. “They brought me to Iligan City and from there, we transferred to another vehicle, and they blindfolded me. It was a scary experience,” he said.
The Kidnappers
Although there have been no official statements on the kidnappers, a classified intelligence report states: “the perpetrators are followers of CMDR MERCURY and CMDR SANTIAGO, both belonging to the Moro Islamic Liberation Front’s (MILF) 102nd Base Command.”
Again, this is where it gets interesting. The 102nd Base Command operates in Lanao del Sur and Marawi City. Taylor was released Wednesday afternoon at the boundary of Piagapo in Lanao del Sur and Marawi City. Chief Supt Bienvenido Latag said police and military operatives nearly cornered the kidnappers.
The 102nd Base Command is led by Abdulrahman Macapaar alias Commander Bravo. In 2008, Bravo was one of three “renegade” MILF commanders charged by the government for attacks and civilian deaths in four towns in Lanao del Norte. The government offered Php 10 million for him. MILF’s chief negotiator Mohagher Iqbal said then the MILF would investigate the three but would not surrender them to the government.
Kidnap for ransom is a familiar money-making venture for the Abu Sayyaf. Are “renegade” groups of the MILF now using the same tactics?
Wild Card
Having documented all this, let me leave you with a loose end I still have to tie: credible sources within the international intelligence community still have not completely ruled out a “kidnap me” scenario.
